Can I choose a lottery number
Lotto 6 out of 49 and the strategy for above-average lottery odds
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Which lottery numbers do you use to achieve above-average lottery odds for lottery 6 out of 49? At the bottom of this page: Unpopular and popular super numbers! |
For this purpose, I present a small evaluation of the first 4900 lottery drawings just mentioned. They were reached on October 16, 2010. At this point in time, each number should have been drawn an average of 600 times. With a little math you can work out how many lottery numbers should deviate from this mean and how far, if only chance reigns. The following list shows how many lottery numbers should be in which frequency intervals. The number actually drawn is in brackets:
554 times or less: about 1 lottery number (1)
555 times to 577 times: about 7 lottery numbers (7)
578 times to 622 times: around 33 lottery numbers (32)
623 times to 645 times: about 7 lottery numbers (8)
646 times or more: about 1 lottery number (1)
You can see that chance produces quite large deviations, and that the actual lottery draws can only be explained very well by chance. Only if the actual numbers deviated significantly from the expected should something be wrong with the lottery draws.
The chance of winning per tip cannot therefore be increased in the lottery. The situation is different with the lottery odds that you get if you have won once. In each prize category, a certain fixed share of the total profit is distributed. So if many lottery players have ticked at least three of the drawn lottery numbers, the money will be divided among a correspondingly more people. This reduces the lottery quota that every lottery player receives. It is therefore important to tick those lottery numbers that the other players tend to avoid. Then, in the event of a win, the sum of money is distributed among fewer lottery tips and the lottery quota increases.
Important:
Unfortunately, even ticking the lottery numbers, which are unpopular with other players, does not result in profitability on average. While all lottery players get an average of around 50 cents back for every euro they bet, the lottery player who ticks them off gets an average of 75 cents back across all prize categories. Unfortunately, the popularity of the lottery numbers is not varied enough that on average you get more money back than you have used. If it were different, this website wouldn't exist and I would start playing the lottery.
But even if you got more money back on average than you spent, there is still a catch. Since you are only a player yourself, but the mean value just mentioned applies to many skilled players, the probability with which you would actually reach or exceed this mean value also plays a major role. However, this probability is negligibly small because all profit classes contribute to the mean value, but it is very likely that you will never get a profit in the top 3 profit classes in your life.
So you can only reduce your average losses by ticking unpopular lottery numbers. That is why you should only play the lottery when you have the money to spare, i.e. when you are not dependent on the winnings, and when the fun of playing the lottery is greater than the frustration of the money wasted. This condition is usually only met with small amounts of money and a few individual tips (!). So that you can stop playing the lottery at any time without any problems, you should change your lottery numbers frequently, because otherwise you would always remember the numbers you typed in the past.
Unpopular and popular lottery numbers
So how do you find out which numbers are unpopular lottery numbers? To do this, one first calculates the theoretical lottery odds for each prize class using the respective winning probabilities (see website about lottery systems). These lottery odds would result if all 139,838,160 possible lottery tips had been submitted with the same frequency. The calculation takes into account that only 50% of the gross amount will be paid out again. In addition, the distribution of the amount distributed among the various prize categories must be taken into account. The probabilities with which a lottery pick will win in the various prize categories also play a role. The smaller the probability, the greater the theoretical win rate. And finally, of course, the price per lottery tip is also important. The following calculation of the theoretical lottery odds was valid until September 19, 2020:
Prize class 1 (6 correct numbers with a super number): 50% 12,800000% 139,838,160 € 1 = € 8,949,642.20
Prize class 2 (6 correct numbers without a super number): 50% 73.962197% 10% 15,537,573 € 1 = € 574,596.52
Prize class 3 (5 correct numbers with a super number): 50% 73.962197% 5% 542,008.4 € 1 = € 10,022.03
Prize class 4 (5 correct numbers without a super number): 50% 73.962197% 15% 60,223.2 € 1 = € 3340.68
Prize class 5 (4 correct numbers with a super number): 50% 73.962197% 5% 10,324.0 € 1 = € 190.90
Prize class 6 (4 correct numbers without a super number): 50% · 73.962197% · 10% · 1147.11 · 1 € = 42.42 €
Prize class 7 (3 correct numbers with a super number): 50% 73.962197% 10% 566.56 € 1 = € 20.95
Prize class 8 (3 correct numbers without a super number): 50% 73.962197% 45% 62.951 € 1 = € 10.48
Prize class 9 (2 correct numbers with a super number): 50% 13.237803% 75.541237 € 1 = € 5.00
If the actual lottery odds of a lottery drawing are above these theoretical values, the drawn lottery numbers must include some that are unpopular and therefore avoided by the players. Another web page explains the method for calculating the popularity of the lottery numbers. The 208 lottery drawings were used for the calculation, the from the beginning of 2018 to the end of 2019 took place in Germany. For popular numbers, the popularity is greater than 1; for unpopular numbers, it is below 1.
Important: Since September 23, 2020, the stake per betting field has been 1.20 euros and the dividend shares of the profit categories have changed. Due to these changes, a recalculation of the popularity of the lottery numbers can only take place again at the end of 2022. However, these favorites hardly change even over a period of 10 years, so that the following favorites, which were still calculated using the old conditions, still reflect the betting behavior of the players well.
And here are all the lottery numbers with their popularity:
Lottery number | popularity | Lottery number | popularity | Lottery number | popularity | Lottery number | popularity |
43 | 0.807 | 34 | 0.885 | 2 | 0.989 | 32 | 1.089 |
14 | 0.816 | 22 | 0.909 | 49 | 0.992 | 10 | 1.110 |
35 | 0.829 | 28 | 0.914 | 23 | 0.993 | 18 | 1.115 |
36 | 0.833 | 40 | 0.920 | 41 | 1.008 | 26 | 1.117 |
44 | 0.855 | 1 | 0.926 | 13 | 1.023 | 6 | 1.126 |
45 | 0.857 | 48 | 0.933 | 27 | 1.036 | 5 | 1.131 |
29 | 0.859 | 37 | 0.953 | 38 | 1.048 | 12 | 1.140 |
20 | 0.869 | 47 | 0.955 | 33 | 1.066 | 3 | 1.182 |
21 | 0.872 | 30 | 0.975 | 25 | 1.071 | 19 | 1.191 |
46 | 0.875 | 39 | 0.979 | 24 | 1.075 | 11 | 1.202 |
15 | 0.876 | 8 | 0.984 | 31 | 1.076 | 17 | 1.256 |
42 | 0.881 | 16 | 0.986 | 4 | 1.088 | 9 | 1.267 |
7 | 1.337 |
In the lottery tip field above, the 27 unpopular numbers are marked green and the 22 popular numbers are marked red. The 13 most unpopular numbers and the 11 most popular numbers are particularly highlighted. The 3 most popular numbers are the "lucky number" 7, 9 and 17. They are ticked about 34%, 27% and 26% more often than chance. You should definitely not select these 3 lottery numbers if you want to avoid a low win rate in the event of a win.
The lottery tip looks like the lottery players have written a "letter". At the top are "Place" and "Date", in the second line follows the "Salutation", then the "Text", finally the "Greeting" and below the "Signature". The left margin remains free so that the "letter" looks tidy. With the exception of the "lucky number" 7, the right and lower edges also remain free.
Important:
As you can also see, the often made claim that a lot of lottery players type birth dates and that one should therefore avoid all lottery numbers up to 31 is wrong. In fact, many of the top 31 lottery numbers are unpopular or even very unpopular. Compared to the "letters" tipsters, the birthdate tipsters are a small group that has no significant influence on the popularity of the lottery numbers.
You should only tick unpopular lottery numbers if you want to achieve an above-average lottery rate on average. However, one should make sure that the six selected lottery numbers do not form a geometric or arithmetic pattern! Because such patterns are popular with many lottery players and lead to bad odds despite the unpopular lottery numbers ticked off. In addition, you should not only use the 6 or 7 most unpopular lottery numbers from my table for the lottery tips. This is the idea that other readers of this website could also come up with. The disappointment in the case of 6 correct numbers would then be great.
Unpopular and popular super numbers
Just as with the selection of the lottery numbers, it is also important for the super numbers to only use the tickets with the super numbers that the other players tend to avoid. In the event of a win, for example, in the "6 correct with super number" prize category, the average number of co-winners would be reduced even further. Often you would even get the jackpot all by yourself.
The 208 lottery draws were used to calculate the popularity of the super numbers, the from the beginning of 2018 to the end of 2019 have taken place. For each super number, the number of winners who got exactly three lottery numbers and the super number correct was determined. These numbers were divided by the number of all winners who got three lottery numbers right when the corresponding super number was drawn. Ten times this quotient then gives the corresponding popularity.
Here are the 10 super numbers with their popularity:
Super number | popularity |
0 | 0,774 |
1 | 0,866 |
2 | 0,911 |
4 | 0,958 |
9 | 0,968 |
3 | 1,048 |
8 | 1,050 |
6 | 1,085 |
5 | 1,121 |
7 | 1,202 |
As you can see, 0 is the least popular super number. They should be selected in order to have as few or no winners as possible. If you can't make up your mind, then you should at least not tick the selected super number as the lottery number. A lot of players do that. The most popular super number is the "lucky number" 7. You should definitely avoid tickets with this number.
By the way, on average about 29 draws pass before each of the 10 super numbers has been drawn at least once (see example 20 on the stochastic formulas website ("surprise egg problem")).
And the probability that the super number matches one of the 6 lottery numbers is 6/49 · 9/10 = 27/245 = 11.02%. Such a case occurs on average about every 9 draws.
In the following illustration, unpopular numbers are highlighted in green and popular numbers are highlighted in red. The two most unpopular and the two most popular super numbers are particularly highlighted.
Link to the topic:
More informative website on the topic of "lottery tips"
Copyright © Werner Brefeld, 1979 ... 2021 (original source)
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